Kingsley Moghalu, a former presidential candidate, on Wednesday said “no one can say for sure who will win” the 2023 election.
Newsbreak.ng reports that Moghalu identified “four main contenders” in next year’s election: Bola Tinubu (All Progressives Congress, APC), Atiku Abubakar (Peoples Democratic Party, PDP), Peter Obi (Labour Party), and Rabiu Kwankwaso (New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP).
According to the former Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Deputy-Governor, the presidential race is finely-poised.
“The 2023 presidential election – if it holds, with a security/economic meltdown that’ll likely get worse before it can get better – is the first since 1999 that no one can say for sure who will win,” Moghalu said via his verified Twitter handle.
“The balance of forces represented by the 4 main contenders is intriguing and well dispersed. @atiku @officialABAT @PeterObi and @KwankwasoRM all have strong following for different reasons.
“If Kwankwaso goes all the way he will take away significant votes from APC in the core North, especially NW. Peter Obi will likely take significant potential PDP votes in SE, SS and Christian NC. Don’t be fooled by Labour Party’s weak performance in Osun or it’s evident lack of structure. The movement is more about PO than Labour Party.
“Meanwhile a huge dose of religious sentiment has now been added to the ethnic one with Nigeria’s main ethnic tripod of Yoruba, Igbo and mainly Muslim core North all strongly represented in the line-up. Many Nigerians will vote across ethno-religious lines, especially the youth but, I predict, not enough to give any candidate a decisive advantage.
“Will Atiku, perhaps the most cosmopolitan politician of the old guard, win enough ethnic votes in the North to off-set what he might lose to Obi in the South where Atiku had more support than his northern home base in 2019? Can Obi crack the Northern “wall”? Will the core north vote for Asiwaju and his Muslim-Muslim ticket before the “son of the soil” Atiku? If RMK does a “Tambuwal” at the last minute in favour of Asiwaju, what happens? Perhaps most important, how many of the new 12 million registered voters will actually vote, and for who?”